The constraint is not the headline
A reported capacity figure matters only when the dependencies required to deliver it are still intact.
Capacity announcements are easy to count and difficult to use. A stated number may depend on interconnection, equipment, construction, fuel, water, skilled labor, or a supplier that has not yet delivered. The reported capacity is not false. It is simply not the decision-grade unit.
A stronger question is what has to remain true for the number to become operating capacity. That moves the work from collecting announcements to following dependencies: permits, long-lead equipment, grid conditions, construction activity, and the routes that connect them.
This does not create certainty. It does create a better record of where uncertainty sits. A decision maker can then distinguish a late-stage dependency from an early assumption, rather than treating both as the same confidence level.
The test for any intelligence system is simple: when a capacity claim changes, can it show what else changes with it? If not, it is reporting a headline rather than supporting a decision.
Further reading