Die yield
The share of dies on a wafer that work, which is what turns wafer capacity into a number of shippable parts.
Die yield is the proportion of individual dies on a finished wafer that pass test and can be sold. It is governed by defect density, by the size of the die, and by how mature the process is - and because a large die intercepts more defects than a small one, yield falls sharply as die area grows. Large AI accelerators sit at the unfavourable end of that curve by construction.
The practical consequence is that wafer capacity and part supply are different quantities, and the conversion between them moves. A modest change in defect density can change the number of shippable accelerators from a fixed wafer allocation by a wide margin, which is why a supply forecast built on wafer starts alone will be wrong in whichever direction yield happens to be moving.
Yield compounds downstream as well. A die that passes wafer test can still be lost during advanced packaging, where a single failed component in an assembly discards everything already bonded to it - so effective yield for a finished module is the product of several stages rather than the number quoted for any one of them.
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